Heatwave magnitude impact over Indian cities: CMIP 6 projections

Abstract

Climate change and global warming surge the frequency and severity of extreme weather events like heatwaves, cyclones, floods, etc. This study assesses future heatwave events in four Indian cities, i.e., Srinagar, Jaipur, Guwahati, and Visakhapatnam. It uses CMIP 6 projections with four SSP scenarios, i.e., SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585. The yearly value of the heatwave magnitude index is used to classify the events in cities. The forthcoming forecast is distributed into three identical periods of 27 years each, i.e., near- (2020–2046), mid- (2047–2073), and long-term periods (2074–2100). The outcomes from the study showed that heatwave events would increase across the cities for all periods under SSP 370 and 585 scenarios. It is computed that 104 extreme events are probable to be observed across these four cities. This study highlights the importance of adaptive techniques in dealing with the negative implications of predicted heatwave weather events. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature.