Exploring temperature dynamics in Madhya Pradesh: a spatial-temporal analysis

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of temperature trends is vital for assessing the impacts of climate change on a regional scale. In this context, the present study focuses on Madhya Pradesh state in Central Indian region to explore the spatial-temporal distribution patterns of temperature changes from 1951 to 2021. Gridded temperature data obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in 1° × 1° across the state are utilised to analyse long-term trends and variations in temperature. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) estimator were used to detect the trends, and Pettitt’s test was utilised for change point detection. The analysis reveals significant warming trends in Madhya Pradesh during the study period during specific time frames. The temperature variables, such as the annual mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min), consistently increase, with the most pronounced warming observed during winter. The trend analysis reveals that the rate of warming has increased in the past few years, particularly since the 1990s. However, Pettitt’s test points out significant changes in the temperature, with T mean rising from 25.46 °C in 1951–2004 to 25.78 °C in 2005–2021 (+0.33 °C), T max shifting from 45.77 °C in 1951–2010 to 46.24 °C in 2011–2021 (+0.47°C), and T min increasing from 2.65 °C in 1951–1999 to 3.19 °C in 2000–2021 (+0.46 °C). These results, along with spatial-temporal distribution maps, shed important light on the alterations and variations in monthly T mean, T max, and T min across the area, underlining the dynamic character of climate change and highlighting the demand for methods for adaptation and mitigation. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.