Assessing Climate Vulnerability of Ramsar Wetlands through CMIP6 Projections

Abstract

Wetlands are essential for preserving numerous natural cycles and providing habitat for a wide variety of wildlife. They are essential to maintaining the appropriate balance of the ecosystem. The Ramsar Convention categorises wetlands as Ramsar Wetlands based on certain parameters (botanical, geological, and hydrological features) and national importance. There could be multiple threats to the wetland ecosystem such as habitat loss, pollution, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation, hydrological modifications, etc. This study delves into assessing the climate vulnerability of 15 newly designated Ramsar sites in India in 2022. Historical analysis of the inundation area of these sites from 1991 to 2022 was performed using pre-processed Landsat imageries in Google Earth Engine. The accuracy of mapping inundation was evaluated by creating error matrix and analyzing user’s accuracy, producer’s accuracy and overall accuracy. Future climate vulnerability was assessed using recent climate projections of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP 245) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6). Machine learning regression algorithms were employed to understand the relationship between wetland inundation and climate variables, paving the way for predictive analysis. Some Ramsar sites showed significantly decreasing trends in past inundation patterns, highlighting their potential vulnerability to climate changes. This analysis underscores the importance of proactive measures to protect these Ramsar sites in the face of evolving climatic conditions, emphasizing the critical role of conservation efforts in preserving these essential ecosystems. © 2024, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.