Forecasting the inundation extent of Ramsar sites using CMIP6 projections

Abstract

Wetlands are essential for preserving numerous natural cycles and providing habitat for a wide variety of wildlife. They defend our coastlines, act as a natural sponge against flooding and drought, and contribute to the fight against climate change. Wetland also provide environmental benefits like Water purification, Flood protection, Shoreline stabilization. They are essential to maintaining the appropriate balance of the ecosystem. The degree of submergence of these wetlands has a significant effect on this balance. Because of this ecological significance, it is essential to assess how flooding has evolved and offer suitable management and conservation methods. The Ramsar Convention categorises wetlands as Ramsar Wetlands based on certain parameters which of national importance. In this study 15 wetlands which were declared as Ramsar sites are studied for their inundation pattern from 1991 to 2060. The study makes use of pre-processed Landsat imageries (1991-2020) for the extraction of inundation area of each site. The climate data i.e., precipitation and temperature data are collected from CMIP6. Some machine learning models are used to forecast the inundation area to future i.e., from 2021 to 2060 based on the climate data extracted from CMIP6.