Remittance and economic growth nexus in BRICS countries: Evidence from PSTR with endogeneity

Abstract

This study evaluates threshold impact of remittances on economic growth based on data for a sample of BRICS countries for the period 1994–2018. In doing so, we employ Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), which captures both heterogeneity and nonlinearity of smooth transition in estimated coefficients from one extreme to another regime. Based on the PSTR model results, the threshold of remittance ranges between 4.82 and 30.65 % for remittance percentage of GDP (RPG) in BRICS countries. Similarly, threshold estimated value of remittance varies from 27.45 to 30.76 % for the remittances received to paid ratio (RRP). We obtained extreme lower and extreme higher regimes characterized by smooth and sharp transitions in growth-remittances nexus conditional upon control variables for RPG under CG and L-BFGS-B algorithms, respectively. The findings suggest that remittance has a positive impact on economic growth under lower regime and negative impact under higher regime. As per the regression results, remittance has positive impact on economic growth below the estimated threshold whereas above the threshold remittance has negative consequences on economic growth. In addition, investment from abroad becomes growth neutral beyond the threshold. However, below the threshold foreign direct investment improves economic growth. In contrast, gross fixed capital formation substantially accelerates economic growth irrespective of extreme regimes underestimated threshold. Nevertheless, findings of trade balance impact on economic growth is estimated to be negative when it crosses the threshold of remittance. This study offers conspicuous policy suggestions based on the non-linear nexus of remittance and economic growth for BRICS countries. © 2025 University of Venice