Integrated assessment of livelihood vulnerability to climate Variability: An empirical study of tribal communities in chhindwara district, central India

Abstract

Climate change creates significant challenges globally, especially for vulnerable populations like tribal communities, due to socio-economic and environmental factors. Despite various studies on climate impacts, detailed assessments of these populations remain scarce. This study evaluates livelihood vulnerabilities induced by climate change among tribal communities in the Chhindwara district of Central India, utilising the Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) framework. A mixed-method approach was employed, incorporating innovative trend analysis (ITA) for rainfall and temperature variation, Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-3) for assessing dry and wet conditions, and LVI-IPCC framework was applied using survey data to evaluate the livelihood vulnerability of tribal communities. Interviews with 261 households from 26 villages in the study area provided insights into local conditions. ITA results indicated a negative trend in annual rainfall (−0.308) and significant increases in mean temperature (0.091), maximum temperature (0.133), and minimum temperature (−0.118). SPI-3 analysis highlighted increased dry conditions post-2016 and heightened wet conditions post-2019. The LVI-IPCC value (0.0094) identifies Parasia (0.073) and Junnardeo (0.069) as the most vulnerable Tehsils. Furthermore, Pearson Correlation revealed a significant relationship between LVI-IPCC and major components of vulnerabilities among tribal communities. This study highlights the need for immediate action to combat climate change and its impacts on vulnerable communities, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 13. International collaboration and integrating Indigenous knowledge are essential for developing and implementing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies and ensuring sustainable development, offering a framework for future research and targeted interventions. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd