Regional analysis of patterns and determinants of migration in india: insights from post-pandemic period and future implications

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant shift in migration patterns in India, given its large population and distinct demographic characteristics. This study examines regional determinants and patterns of migration in India, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on migration and the intention to migrate. The study utilises Periodic Labour Force Survey-2021 data conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO-2021) to analyse how individual and household socio-economic and demographic characteristics influence migration outcomes employing binomial logit regression. The findings indicate that the employment activity of migrant workers largely remains unchanged post-migration across regions, except in the Northeast region. Employment-related factors, such as job loss, predominantly drive COVID-19 induced migration, and this impact extends to self-employed, casual workers, and regular salaried employees. However, more than half of COVID-19 induced return migrants seek to migrate again in the future. Based on the logit regression results, we found that there is a structural change in the decision to migrate during the pandemic. Surprisingly, it is evident that determinants of COVID-19 induced- and return migrants show a contrasting picture of overall migratory decision. The study underscores the need to address labour market vulnerabilities and to enhance employment opportunities through comprehensive skill development initiatives. Further, it emphasises the importance of strengthening social security systems, particularly for migrants and marginalized populations. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.