A Techno-Societal Framework for Quantifying the Risk of Heavy Rainfall Events Over Ramsar Wetlands

Abstract

Wetlands are often found in depressions or around rivers, lakes, and coastal seas, where they periodically flood. Hence, this study presents a new techno-societal framework for quantifying the risk of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on wetland ecosystems and surrounding communities in India. By integrating advanced technological approaches such as Bayesian analysis, fuzzy logic, and remote sensing with societal considerations, we provide a comprehensive assessment of wetland vulnerability to climate change impacts. An effort has been made to understand the non-stationarity of HREs, inundation patterns of wetlands, impact evaluation, and future precipitation trends (CMIP6). The overall assessment of the extreme precipitation indices indicated that return periods were highest for Thane Creek, followed by Bhoj Wetland. We also assessed the risk index based on the parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for all wetlands using the fuzzy logic approach. The overall risk index evaluation indicated that Bhoj Wetland, Thane Creek, Point Calimere, Deepor Beel, Sasthamkotta Lake, and Vembannur Wetland are at “very high” risk. The study also investigated inundation patterns of critical “very high” risk wetlands and conducted an impact evaluation for the Bhoj Wetland, highlighting the influence of HREs on infrastructures, human settlements, and ecosystems. Wetlands such as Point Calimere, Vembannur Wetland, Karikili Bird Sanctuary, Vendanthangal, and Vaduvur Bird Sanctuary showed a significantly increasing trend in precipitation for both historical and future SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are useful in decision-making for policymakers to adopt the best practices to manage the local wetlands wisely. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.