Impact of climate change on flood properties in a mountainous catchment of Nepal Himalayas

Abstract

Floods in the Nepal Himalayan region pose severe challenges to hydro-infrastructure design, agricultural production, and risk management. With the advent of global warming, the changing patterns of precipitation and temperature will alter the annual flood hydrographs. However, the variation in the flood hydrograph properties in response to the changing climatic conditions in the Nepal Himalayas has been explored less. This paper assesses the changes in flood peak, flood volume, and flood duration from the historical (1986–2019) to the future (2031–2100) annual maximum flood hydrographs. In addition, the changes in flood seasonality and the sensitivity of flood peaks and flood volumes to changing precipitation and temperature are also elaborated. It is observed that future floods have increased flood peaks, decreased flood durations, and delays in the timing of the occurrences. Furthermore, it is observed that flood properties are more sensitive to changes in event precipitation rather than temperature. This study highlights the importance of climate-informed changes in flood properties for regional water and risk management in mountainous regions. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.