Deciphering changing rainfall patterns across the hydroclimatic spectrum in Central India

Abstract

Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of climate parameters is essential for sustainable environmental planning, particularly in climate-sensitive regions like Central India. This study examines changes in rainfall patterns over Madhya Pradesh, Central India, using daily rainfall data for two periods: 1951–2000 (past) and 2001–2023 (recent). The study reports a multi-scale assessment of extreme rainfall indices (ERIs) across diverse hydroclimatic and physiographic units, including river basins, agroclimatic zones, Köppen–Geiger climate zones, elevation zones, and land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes. Percentage changes and trend reversals in ERIs were evaluated using the Modified Mann–Kendall test, while Sen’s slope estimator was used to quantify the magnitude and direction of trends in ERIs across several hydroclimatic units. Spatial uniformity in monsoonal rainfall was assessed using Relative Entropy, along with transitions between dry and wet states across the two periods. Results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in rainfall patterns, with notable trend reversals (i.e., shifts from decreasing to increasing and from increasing to decreasing trends) in most ERIs post-2000. Notable variations in rainfall extremes, variability, and trend patterns are observed across river basins, agroclimatic zones, LULC classes, and elevation zones, enabling us to assess the multi-sectoral impacts of climate change. A discernible westward shift in rainfall patterns during the recent period further indicates a redistribution of rainfall hotspots. These findings highlight evolving rainfall dynamics and their potential implications for water resources, agriculture, soil conservation, and climate resilience. The study provides important insights for region-specific climate adaptation strategies and evidence-based policy planning in Central India. © The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 2026.