Integrative approach to solar PV waste Trajectories: SARIMA trend analysis and life cycle environmental evaluation in the Indian context

Abstract

India’s rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity toward the 500 GW renewable energy target by 2030 will generate substantial end-of-life (EoL) PV waste, creating an environmental challenge. This study develops an integrated framework combining Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) forecasting with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The SARIMA model developed using MNRE PV installation data (2019–2024), achieved a rolling-window cross-validation MAPE of 11.32%. Forecasts indicate annual PV waste will increase from 0.37 million tonnes in 2041 to 16.98 million tonnes by 2059, with cumulative waste reaching 33.69 million tonnes. These projections were incorporated into an ISO 14040/14044 compliant LCA using SimaPro 10.4.0.1, ecoinvent v3.11, and the ReCiPe 2016 Midpoint (H) method. Mechanical recycling outperformed sanitary landfill disposal, reducing global warming potential (5.77 vs. 28.30 kg CO2 eq), human non-carcinogenic toxicity (19.47 vs. 748 kg 1,4-DCB eq), freshwater ecotoxicity (94%), and fossil resource scarcity (86%). By 2059, the projected waste stream could recover approximately 11 million tonnes of glass, 3 million tonnes of aluminium, and silver, copper, and silicon. The proposed SARIMA-LCA framework provides a transferable tool for PV waste infrastructure planning, Extended Producer Responsibility implementation, and circular economy strategies in rapidly growing renewable energy economies. © 2026 Elsevier Ltd.