Seismic Microzonation of the Greater Srinagar Region in Jammu and Kashmir

Abstract

Kashmir Valley, known for its unique geological structure and high seismicity, has historically endured catastrophic earthquakes, including the 2005 Mw 7.6 Kashmir earthquake. The geological formations, including the Karewa highlands and alluvial plains, exhibit significant variability in soil properties, necessitating a detailed geotechnical and seismic assessment. This study seeks to evaluate these vulnerabilities for the Greater Srinagar Region of the valley, through seismic and geotechnical microzonation. The study was conducted through several systematic steps, including geotechnical soil characterisation, seismic site characterisation and estimation of bedrock depth using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) techniques, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, ground response analysis, calculation of soil bearing capacity, and evaluation of liquefaction potential. Using an integrated hazard index (IHI) that combines liquefaction and bearing capacity hazard indices, four vulnerability zones (VZ-A to VZ-D) were identified for Greater Srinagar. VZ-A represents low vulnerability in which most of the hilly regions fall, VZ-B represents medium vulnerability including Karewa highlands, VZ-C is the zone of moderate vulnerability transition zones subjected to, and VZ-D floodplains, high vulnerability. VZ-D (Jhelum floodplains) posed the highest risk (IHI > 0.55) with low bearing capacity and high liquefaction hazards, VZ-C (Jhelum floodplains) showed medium vulnerability (IHI ~ 0.30–0.55), VZ-B (Karewa highlands) represents moderate vulnerability (IHI ~ 0.15–0.30), while as VZ-A (hills) exhibited high static bearing capacity and negligible liquefaction risks (IHI < 0.15). This microzonation effort provides a robust framework for integrating seismic and geotechnical data into urban planning and construction projects for the region. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2026.