Effect of climatic factors on agricultural productivity and food security in India : an econometric analysis

Abstract

Agricultural productivity and food security are intertwined issues for the entire developing world with climate change posing further threat to agricultural production. Climate change brings around 12 million hectares of agricultural land under serious degradation every year due to frequent droughts and floods globally. Any decline in cultivable land makes the already undernourished population of nearly 1.2 billion to be vulnerable to change in food production as an impact of climate change. This situation is in sharp contradiction to the millions who suffer from chronic diseases due to excess food consumption. However, in the developing world, one child dies every six second, and more people die every year due to hunger than from other serious diseases like AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis together. India aimed for and achieved self-sufficiency in food production since 1970 and its food production would ensure the food security for everyone in the country. It is most food secure country in the world. Despite that it is home for largest size of food insecure population in the world counting to around 325 million malnourished people with approximately 48.0%being children under the age of five. Income poverty, food poverty, distributional problems, income inequality, food price inflation, regional disparities and inefficient government machinery are the major reasons for food insecurity in India. Dependence of agricultural production on climate and changing weather threatens food security in India because more than 52% population directly depends on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and fishery for their livelihood. On the other hand, food demand is estimated to increase by more than double by year 2050 due to high growth rate of population and it would lead to an increase in competition for already scarce natural and physical resources like land, water, and capital. In the present study we evaluate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security.