Probabilistic and Deterministic Analysis of Lungchok Landslide, South Sikkim, India

Abstract

The northern part of INDIA is most vulnerable in failure of slopes due to hill region with complex geology, high-intensity rainfall and frequently occurrence of earthquakes. The stability of slopes has traditionally analyzed using deterministic methods. But uncertainty plays major role in geotechnical engineering. the probabilistic characterization of uncertainties in input variables for the assessment of slope stability is very helpful. In this paper, the safety of slope using deterministic and probabilistic methods under static and pseudo-static loads is carried for Lungchok landslide which is in south district of Sikkim state, India. The Factor of safety calculated by deterministic cannot represent the stability of slope exactly as it is limited to the single value of parameters. The stability of slope is independent of single soil parameter but dependent on random process with distribution of soil parameters. Rather than the conventional factor of safety against the sliding failure the probability of sliding failure is most useful. The stability of slope is analyzed using two approaches deterministic and probabilistic analysis under the effects of static and pseudo static forces. The deterministic approach with Morgenstern Price limit equilibrium method and the probabilistic approach with Monte Carlo simulation have been performed for the stability analysis of Lungchok landslide using Geo-Studio Software. The dependence and efficiency of the probabilistic strategies in the investigation of slope stability was highlighted in this paper. © 2021, Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.