Vulnerability of people of Madhya Pradesh to climate change: a meso-level analysis

Abstract

The state of Madhya Pradesh has higher exposure to changes in climatic variables, as evident from historical changes in climatic parameters and the projections by various researchers. National level studies on vulnerability to climate change in India have identified state of Madhya Pradesh, as well as its districts, as highly vulnerable to climate change due to several factors like high climate sensitivity, high population growth rate, higher share of marginalized communities and marginal workers, high dependence on agriculture, high unemployment rate, high poverty, lack of education and basic civic amenities (O' Brien et al., 2004b; Sharma et al., 2015b; Chakraborty & Joshi, 2016; Sendhil et al., 2018). The projected changes in climatic conditions in the next couple of decades and the higher vulnerability condition identified in Madhya Pradesh in the literature (Das,2013; Yenneti et al.,2016; Azhar et al.,2017) make a detailed study of vulnerability to climate change a necessity in this state. Most national-level vulnerability assessments have attributed social vulnerability as the major reason for vulnerability to different stressors in Madhya Pradesh. However, there is no consensus regarding drivers of vulnerability, as the study context differs in each study. As social vulnerability or contextual vulnerability is the internal property of a population, irrespective of the stressor, a detailed study of the reasons contributing to their vulnerability needs to be understood. This requires comparing the social vulnerability of the Madhya Pradesh population with the population of other states. Also, the factors contributing to social vulnerability need to be understood to identify what makes the state population more vulnerable than other states of India.