Estimating the value of expired and active patents: A renewal model approach

Abstract

This study proposes an updated renewal model to estimate active patent value and technical depreciation in five major Indian technology fields. According to a study of 27,000 patents issued by the Indian Patent Office between 1998 and 2018, Indian patents have a lower value than foreign patents. This suggests that India's patenting and R&D qualities differ from those of more advanced countries. Technology-specific factors are important because technology fields depreciate at different rates. The top 5% of patents accounted for most international and domestic patent values. A genetic algorithm is used to optimise the renewal model accuracy. This study has significant implications for Indian policymakers, patent holders, international investors, and technology market participants. This model allows startups and new businesses who want to value their IP at the very early stage to negotiate with their counterpart when licensing or selling the patents. © 2024 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.