Modeling the evolution and impact of space weather drivers

Abstract

Space weather has gained increasing significance due to its potential impact on power grids, navigation systems, satellite operations, and astronaut safety. As nations, including India, prepare for upcoming space missions, the development of reliable space weather prediction models has become essential to safeguard these assets. Solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar flares are the primary space weather drivers that can cause disturbances on Earth. This thesis presents a numerical approach to study these space weather drivers, focusing on their origins, evolution, and interactions, with the goal of enhancing forecasting capabilities. The first phase of this thesis introduces an indigenous three-dimensional (3D) solar wind model (SWASTi-SW), developed to forecast the ambient solar wind properties in the heliosphere. This model leverages a semi-empirical coronal model combined with a physics-based inner heliospheric model. The study refines the widely used Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) relation, offering a more generalized version that estimates the solar wind speed at 0.1 AU. Validated against in-situ observations across multiple Carrington rotations, the SWASTi-SW model effectively simulates solar wind properties in the inner-heliosphere.