Assessing climate change risk and vulnerability among Bhil and Bhilala tribal communities in Madhya Pradesh, India: a multidimensional approach

Abstract

Climate change presents significant risks to marginalized communities, particularly in tribal groups like the Bhil and Bhilala communities of Madhya Pradesh, India. Limited empirical studies have focused on the effects of climate change on tribes in India. This study aims to assess climate change risk and vulnerability among tribal communities, employing the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test to identify climate trends, a risk assessment framework based on the Intergovernmental panel on climate change sixth assessment report (IPCC-AR6), and multiple linear regression (MLR). The MMK test indicates an increasing trend in rainfall (MMK = 1.099) and temperature. However, household perceptions reveal a high awareness of climatic changes, with 97% of respondents reporting irregularity in rainfall and 98% documenting increased summer hot days. The risk assessment shows that Bhil households face higher risk (0.107) than Bhilala households (0.068), which is determined by higher exposure and sensitivity. MLR results further emphasize that 12 of 23 indicators significantly affect risk assessment (R-squared = 0.698), with climatic events (β = 0.015), housing structure (β = 0.07), and food security being key contributors. The findings indicate that long-term climate trends are already affecting tribal livelihoods. It calls for targeted adaptation strategies, incorporating enhanced infrastructure, crop diversification, and better access to climate information and government schemes. © The Author(s) 2025.