Simulating the Arrival of Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections That Triggered the Gannon Superstorm on 2024 May 10

Abstract

The 2024 May 10 space weather event stands out as the most powerful storm recorded during the current solar cycle. This study employs a numerical framework utilizing a semiempirical coronal model, along with heliospheric upwind extrapolation with time dependence and cone coronal mass ejection (CME) models for the inner heliosphere, to forecast solar wind velocity and the arrival of CMEs associated with this event. The simulations were also carried out using the Space Weather Adaptive Simulation framework and a drag-based model (DBM) for this complex event of multiple CMEs. Predicted arrival times and velocities from these models are compared with actual observations at the Sun-Earth L1 point. These simulations reveal that three CMEs reached Earth nearly simultaneously, resulting in the extreme space weather event, followed by the arrival of a few more eruptions. The simulations accurately predicted arrival times with a discrepancy of approximately 5 hr or less for these CMEs. Further, the ensemble study of the DBM shows the sensitivity of the CME arrival time to the background solar wind speed and drag parameters. All three models have done fairly well in reproducing the arrival time closely to the actual observation of the CMEs responsible for the extreme geomagnetic storm of 2024 May 10. These rare solar storms offered a unique opportunity to thoroughly evaluate and validate our advanced models for predicting their arrival at Earth. © 2025. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.