Sustainable strategies for electric vehicle waste management: a study on forecasting and site suitability analysis

Abstract

The rapid adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in India, particularly electric two-wheelers (E2Ws), has amplified the urgency for sustainable end-of-life (EOL) EV lithium-ion battery (LIB) management. This thesis presents an integrated approach to forecasting LIB waste generation from E2Ws and identifying suitable locations for establishing a LIB recycling facility in Indore, India. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed using 94 months of historical E2Ws sales data (2017–2024) sourced from the VAHAN portal. The model demonstrated robust forecasting accuracy with an R² value of 0.70 and an MAPE of 10.8%, effectively capturing both seasonal and non-seasonal patterns in EV adoption. Forecasts extended through 2030 were used to project future battery waste, considering average battery capacities and a base-case specific energy of 210 Wh/kg. Battery EOL contributions were assessed across three lifespan scenarios (4, 6, and 8 years), providing scenario-based waste timelines that align with practical battery degradation behaviour.