Assessment of Risk and Resilience of Terrestrial Ecosystem Productivity under the Influence of Extreme Climatic Conditions over India

Abstract

Analysing the link between terrestrial ecosystem productivity (i.e., Net Primary Productivity: NPP) and extreme climate conditions is vital in the context of increasing threats due to climate change. To reveal the impact of changing extreme conditions on NPP, a copula-based probabilistic model was developed, and the study was carried out over 25 river basins and 10 vegetation types of India. Further, the resiliency of the terrestrial ecosystems to sustain the extreme disturbances was evaluated at annual scale, monsoon, and non-monsoon seasons. The results showed, 15 out of 25 river basins were at high risks, and terrestrial ecosystems in only 5 river basins were resilient to extreme climatic conditions. Moreover, at least 50% area under 4 out of 10 vegetation cover types was found to be facing high chances of a drastic reduction in NPP, and 8 out of 10 vegetation cover types were non-resilient with the changing extreme climate conditions. © 2019, The Author(s).