Geospatial analysis of forest fire dynamics and community perceptions of socio-economic impacts in Hoshangabad forest division, central India

Abstract

Forest fires are a recurring feature of India’s forest landscapes and are widely regarded as one of the central drivers of forest degradation and socio-economic vulnerability among forest-dependent communities. In recent years, increasing satellite-based detections of forest fires in Central India have prompted management responses that largely prioritize fire suppression and control. However, there is limited empirical research that combines spatial analysis of forest fires with community-level insights to understand how fire affects livelihoods, cultural practices, and governance. This thesis addresses this gap through a mixed-methods investigation of forest fire dynamics and their perceived socio-economic impacts in the Hoshangabad Forest Division of Central India. It integrates long-term remote sensing analysis of fire occurrence (2001–2022), GISbased spatial statistics, proximity and hotspot analysis, and an Analytic Hierarchy Process–based fire risk model with household surveys (n = 402), qualitative interviews, and ethnographic observations. Geospatial results reveal a gradual increase in fire occurrences over two decades though insignificant statistically, with strong spatial clustering and more dominion of fire occurrence in teak-dominated and degraded forest areas.